Engineering Serendipity: How to Turn “Old” Research into New Growth
What if the most valuable asset in your company’s portfolio is a piece of research you’ve already forgotten? In the 1960s, glassmaker Corning Inc. developed a chemically strengthened glass for racing car windshields. Decades later, that same “old” technology was adjusted to become Gorilla Glass, providing the displays for the first iPhones and triggering exponential growth for the firm. Most leaders assume such breakthroughs are lightning strikes, rare, serendipitous, and entirely out of their control.
But new research suggests that firms don’t have to wait for luck. In a study published in the Strategic Management Journal, “How to grow new applications out of old research? Evidence from firm cumulative investments in deep learning,” author Xirong (Subrina) Shen (2026) reveals that top-performing firms “engineer” these breakthroughs by radically changing how they manage their past innovations.
Firms can turn “old” research into new market value by shifting from a “sunk cost” mindset to a “shadow option” strategy. By using open-science disclosure and leveraging brand reputation, leaders can attract external innovators to solve application uncertainty and capture value in entirely new sectors.
The Research: A Deep Dive into Deep Learning
Shen examined US publicly traded firms between 2003 and 2020, focusing on their early research in deep learning. This technology provided a “living lab”: while its technical potential was recognized early on, it was long considered a commercial dead-end because the computing power required to train the algorithms was prohibitively expensive.
The study tracked how firms responded to a major “shock”, the 2009 introduction of graphics processing units (GPUs) that slashed the training time for deep learning by 98.5%. By comparing deep learning projects to similar research in other fields, the study isolated exactly how firms turn a sudden increase in “application potential” into actual market value.
Key Findings
Practical Implications: What Strategic Leaders Should Do
Strategic Roadmap
- Map Your Shadow Options: Managers should look beyond their current product lines to identify past research that may have been “shelved” due to high costs or lack of complementary technology. As the AT&T and Corning examples show, changes in the external environment—like cheaper computing or new materials—can suddenly make old knowledge incredibly valuable.
- Use Disclosure as a Magnet: If you aren’t sure where a technology could be used, don’t lock it behind a patent wall immediately. Publishing research or engaging in open-science communities can attract “application-sector innovators” who possess the specialized knowledge your firm lacks. This co-evolution strategy helps resolve uncertainty about an invention’s “eventual uses” rather than just its technical performance.
- Build a Cross-Sector Shield: A disclosure-heavy strategy only works if you can protect your profits later. The study found that firms with strong brand reputations (measured by advertisement spending) were more successful with this approach. A strong brand acts as a “complementary asset” that allows you to enter a new market discovered by an external partner and still capture the share of the value.
Conclusion: Engineering Your Own Luck
The path to growth isn’t always about inventing something entirely new. Often, it’s about looking at what you already have through a different lens. By actively reinvesting in old research, disclosing development paths to attract external talent, and leveraging your brand to enter new sectors, you can turn serendipity into a repeatable strategy.
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